Ovum claims predictably that Operators’ M2M opportunities revenues will more than treble over the next five years

 

 

 

Ovum claims predictibly that Operators’ M2M opportunities revenues will more than treble over the next five years

This is interesting since its about M2M and not IOT

‘M2M’ (machine to machine). M2M is mainly a Telecoms industry term.

M2M implies a ‘machine + radio’ at least at one end with a cellular modem.

IOT has a wider goal of making intelligent devices using radio technologies (but not necessarily cellular).

IOT is expected to be in the range of 50 billion devices by 2020

By 2020, we are expected to have 50 billion connected devices

To put in context:

The first commercial citywide cellular network was launched in Japan by NTT in 1979

The milestone of 1 billion mobile phone connections was reached in      2002

The 2 billion mobile phone connections milestone was reached in 2005

The 3 billion mobile phone connections milestone was reached in 2007

The 4 billion mobile phone connections milestone was reached in February 2009.

So, 50 billion by 2020 is a large number

Thus,  M2M is a subset of IOT(Internet of things).

For example healthcare has the following wireless technologies – Bluetooth, MICS, 802.11, IEE 802.15.4, 802.11e, Zigbee, Whitehart, Wibree, ISA100.11a, 6LoWPAN , 6lowpan, 3G/GPRS/GSM.

Cellular is just one of them ..

Now, what is Ovum claiming - Ovum outlines operators’ M2M opportunities as it forecasts revenues will more than treble over the next five years

 a)  Over the next five years, M2M revenues will grow to reach $44.8bn, with more than a third coming from Asia-Pacific.

b)  New forecasts* from Ovum reveal that revenues will grow slightly more slowly than connections, reflecting the increasing competitiveness of the market and the extension of M2M into lower-value applications.

c) Total global M2M connections will more than treble from 106.4 million in 2012 to 360.9 million in 2018, at a CAGR of 22.6%.

d) There will be growth across all regions, but it will be fastest in Asia-Pacific and the Middle East and Africa. Revenues in Asia-Pacific will grow to almost $15bn, at a CAGR of 26.5%, between 2012 and 2018.

e) The most important industry verticals in 2018 will be healthcare, manufacturing, and energy & utilities, which are forecast to generate revenues of $7.9bn, $7.1bn, and $7.0bn respectively by 2018.

f)  “This is not a forecast of the ‘Internet of Things’ but rather of managed and paid-for connections over public mobile networks,

 g)  “For telcos there are really two opportunities: to stand back and provide the connectivity for M2M services, or to roll up their sleeves and get involved with the end-to-end provision of solutions.”

h) The first is a smaller opportunity but is much more straightforward for telcos to address. The second is much bigger, but involves new skills and competencies, and defining new kinds of relationship with systems integrators (SIs) and software development.

Analysis

Most of these reports are written for Telco audiences.

So, they follow a now familiar pattern

a) Show that there is a big market .. (X billion after Y years)

b) Claim connectivity is minimum and thats the low hanging fruit ..

c) Claim services are the key but Telcos need different skills to take advantage of services (or those Big Bad OTT guys will take it all!)

So, no surprises here!

Why Asia Pac? esp with healthcare, energy and utilities driving the uptake?

I am not sure ..

But overall .. a sense of Deja Vu

For real innovation – see IOT, Kickstarter etc