Gedankenexperiment: The ethos behind the OpenGardens blog and the inspiration of Jacob Bronowski

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One of the advantages of blogging is: I get to express the full potential of my thinking which often spans multiple domains. And I also get to meet some very intelligent people who often know me from reading my blog, which is great fun.

Recently, when I was nominated by the world economic forum for the future of the Internet and I attended their event at Dubai, I met someone who had read my blog…

She started off by saying how much she enjoyed reading the OpenGardens blog and then added that it was a ‘weird and interesting blog’.

The ‘interesting’ bit was nice .. but I asked her what she meant by ‘weird’.

Her response was: The blog spans many areas. On one hand, there is a deep coverage of Internet and Mobility but also some very unusual topics which one may not expect with technology. Ex: Human Rights, Comics and even Maori Love songs

So, that’s what she meant by ‘weird’…

Since the mind behind this strange concoction of a blog is mine :) , I thought I should explain the ethos behind the OpenGardens blog. Thus, this post is based on my discussions with her trying to explain the thinking behind this blog.

Some initial ideas:

• I believe in Open networks (especially the Internet). This often brings me in intellectual contradiction to the established Mobile industry.

• I am interested in areas which span domains (ex Mobile Web 2.0 spanning the Internet and Mobility, Smart Grids spanning Internet, Mobility and Power grids) etc.

• I am interested in Open Innovation i.e. clearly my business also benefits when I put out new ideas and interact with other readers globally and these ideas get refined. And I am not alone. Some of the most insightful bloggers like my good friend Martin Sauter also are believes in Open innovation as a motivation for blogging.

Furthermore, I am not a journalist. A journalist is a generalist and normally does not bring his own views. Thus, the journalist often brings two differing views and allows the reader to make their judgement (as opposed to indicating their own view).

Although the blog leans more to an analyst, the blog is not strictly an analyst blog.

Rather, it is a specific type of analysis .. summarised by a word I use often i.e. the German word Gedankenexperiment. A Gedankenexperiment is a ‘thought experiment’ i.e. ‘what if’ scenario… the best example of this is from Einstein when he asked ‘What would the world look like if he travelled on a beam of light’

I think there are three styles of thinkers:

The first is the Believer i.e. people of faith .. who often at some point have to suspend reason.

The other extreme is the critic/sceptic. James Randi is an example of a critic i.e. someone who takes a totally fact based view and adds value by his criticism (but does not produce much independent work of his own).

Between these two extremes is what I call the ‘scientist’ i.e. someone who uses a rational foundation but also has the imagination to conduct a ‘thought experiment’ (which is what I am trying to do with the OpenGardens blog).

This means that the blog takes a stand/position based on an intellectual foundation. It may not always be correct but I hope that it extends the body of knowledge based on a rational foundation and provides insights.

And the thinking may span domains.

One example of this approach is from Jim Berkland who claims to accurately predict earthquakes based on ‘Lost pet ads’ in local newspapers which he has monitored over many years (the theory being that pets sense impending earthquakes and flee homes before an earthquake – which is reflected in the lost pets ads). Although, the results may not be accepted by the mainstream scientific community, I think that they are based on empirical observations and data and add value.

Apart from an intellectual curiosity which I gained from my father, the blog is also based on my readings / admiration for the thoughts of Jacob Bronowski. While Jacob Bronowski was popular well before I was born, I think his ideas are timeless and I have seen no one else who can seamlessly blend arts, science and maths and explain it all with such simplicity, humility and humanity through his books and documentaries.

If you are interested in this, you should read ‘The common sense of science‘ – interesting comments on Amazon! And also see The Ascent of Man and it is indeed a pity that Jacob Bronowski died within a year of producing the Ascent of man

I leave you with some quotes from Bronowski.

1) Man is unique not because he does science, and his is unique not because he does art, but because science and art equally are expressions of his marvellous plasticity of mind.

2) It is important that students bring a certain ragamuffin, barefoot irreverence to their studies; they are not here to worship what is known, but to question it.

In any case, I hope that this post provided you with insights about the mind behind this blog!

My views on BADA and why I believe that BADA will impact Nokia ..

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I was invited to attend Samsung BADA launch event in London .. And here are my views.

At a number of recent events, Samsung executives have expressed their desire to be more aggressive in taking on market leader Nokia. Hence, I was more interested in the overall vision of Samsung and the direction it may take in the next three years. Considering BADA is an important part of that vision .. The event was significant.

A few initial thoughts:

a) The overall industry feedback to the event has been mixed .. I think some people actually expected Samsung demonstrate devices. That was not my expectation i.e. this event was pitched at developers for forthcoming devices. The outreach to developers is significant as I will explain below. If Samsung does not deliver BADA devices in 2010 (with developer applications), then they have missed their goals – but I see these two things as distinct i.e. the intent today is simply to get developers and launch devices in 2010. So, until such time as we see devices based on BADA, I will give Samsung/ BADA the benefit of doubt.

b) BADA is oriented towards feature phones and not smart phones. Hence, there is no direct conflict with Android(which is pitched to Smart phones). So, the target here is the Nokia S40 devices .. And that’s a large market both in advanced and especially emerging markets.

c) For handset manufacturers, creating a third party developer ecosystem is a matter of survival. The reason is: hardware will be increasingly commoditised, new entrants especially from China will reduce the costs of devices and also simply there are too many device manufacturers. Apps offer a way to avail revenue, to build brand and create stickiness for handset vendors. While that revenue may be shared with Operators, the iPhone has shown that it could be significant. Operators will look to device vendors to provide an ecosystem. The current revenue for Operators from apps is tiny(10 million to 20million USD for Operator portals including content such as ringtones). That will increase if the success of apps is replicated.

d) When I chaired the Mobile application stores event at CTIA , One of the key insights from the speakers many of whom already had successful apps is: The first in a category is the winner .. But then that category quickly gets many more(not One app for that .. rather 100 apps for that). So, as I commented then, a way to mitigate that risk could be to go for a new ecosystem which is also commercially viable(like the iPhone) since the same principle applies(first in category). Hence, developers could benefit merely by being ‘first in category’ on BADA or other ecosystems assuming that they take off later

e) I am a believer in the wider application store strategy See From Intel inside to appstore inside

With these two ideas in mind .. let’s see where the state of the industry is at ..

a) On one hand, we could see BADA as ‘yet another platform’. The first generation platforms like Java, Symbian and Windows Mobile were essentially operating systems or development platforms. Of that generation, only BREW was an ecosystem but not really successful. Android and the iPhone are second generation platforms which are more ecosystems than Operating systems. BADA is also an ecosystem – and hence it is far more than an operating system/first generation platform

b) In fact, BADA is the ONLY ecosystem pitched at feature phones .. and this makes it significant. No offence to the Nokia fan club, but there is no ecosystem for S40 devices so far as I can see(Ovi is pitched at Smart phones)

c) By ‘ecosystem’, I mean a more complete commercial and service model along with a developer platform. This includes discovery(appstores), billing, services(location, social networks etc)

Ecosystems vs. developer platforms

I have been more interested in ecosystems than in developer platforms. In that sense, any platform needs to have more than the SDK and its success will depend on the extent to which it creates an ecosystem.

Why is this important?

We are witnessing a fundamental shift to services. (After all, Appstores are Long Tail services). Operators have seen the success of the iPhone. The iPhone is an ecosystem. It lends to the Long Tail service model. However, that model has a cost when deployed on the mobile ecosystem(as opposed to the Web). So, Operators will look to ‘someone else’ to carry that risk and manage that developer ecosystem. Device manufacturers are a logical choice since services and apps provide an added incentive to the customer and a point of differentiation. Hence, the device vendor in future will attempt to sell to the Operator a mixture of device and third party services(apps). This is a win-win for all: Operators, device vendors, customers and developers. When viewed in that way, the BADA platform is significant and its biggest impact will be on Nokia(if it’s successful) – both in advanced and in emerging markets. This is because Nokia has(so far) not succeeded in its appstore strategy .. and also apps are needed to distinguish a device vendor from the host of cheap OEMs(especially potentially from China that could arise)

I am not that worried about the ‘vapourware’/ Bada is Nada argument since Symbian also is doing the same(and that’s not bad in itself) i.e. a forward positioning to attract developers is a valid strategy in my view as long as we see actual implementations within a reasonable time frame

Ovi could also become an ecosystem but still only for smartphones ..

As the Financial Times says in Nokia rearms for the next round of Smart phones – Ovi is also evolving. Planned new features include in-application payments, a redesigned user interface that makes apps easier to discover, and faster operation etc(the same services which BADA also announced). Ovi also claims one million downloads every day and while these include ringtones and pictures, Ovi is making an attempt to evolve.

The Ovi suite – which also includes music and mapping services – now has 80m active users, up from 54m in August.. The current Ovi strategy is a hodpodge(“jambalaya” as one Nokia exec described it), but the intent is to focus more on software and apps.

Nokia is working hard at making Ovi into an ecosystem. Nokia CEO Olli pekka kallasvuo , rightly sensed the change in the mood two years ago but Nokia got caught out by the iPhone which managed to create a successful services ecosystem first. Also, today the picture is bigger than the iPhone. For handset vendors, like it or not, apps are a way to gain revenue. According to the financial times, Nokia’s handset unit had an industry-leading 20.1 per cent margin at the level of operating profit in 2007, but it had slipped to 12.2 per cent in the second quarter of 2009. Apps are a way to bridge that gap

Ovi is being transformed though .. Nokia is rebuilding the Ovi appstore

Bada ..

When viewed in the above context, BADA does offer some benefits to developers. For one, it could offer a potentially larger market if it executes its emphasis on feature phones. Also, Samsung is playing it safe by the Operator .. when a member of the audience asked about VOIP, the response from Samsung was a polite ‘no’ since it impacts the Operator business. So, Operators may also be interested.

BADA has a number of interesting features like widget-based UI through TouchWiz, push notification and native support for flash. More interestingly, revenue share was 70/30 in favour of the developer with the Operator’s share coming from the 30%(remains to be seen how Samsung manages to execute that)

There are four abstraction layers for BADA : Kernel, Device, Service(Social network, Billing and Location) and Framework(APIs). The higher two (APIs and Framework) should be interesting especially services like Social network, Billing and Location.

To Conclude:

a) I believe apps will be ‘Do or Die’ to the future of handsets for the reasons listed above

b) Operators will look to device vendors to provide an ecosystem.

c) There are currently no ‘appstores’ pitched at mass market phones. Hence, BADA is significant

d) Samsung is making some efforts to promote BADA including creating an ‘evangelist network’

e) Samsung’s desire to ‘work with the operator’ as opposed to create its own brand could be a strong proposition for Operators

f) Ovi received a hostile response from Operators. But later, Operators started making deals with Ovi. The recession was an important driver for this change of heart. So, I see that in future, Operators will have a choice of Ovi and BADA and also BADA could be for the feature phones.

In any case, this is good for developers. Hence, I am keen to see how BADA develops.

As usual, comments welcome

I have a new hobby .. Buying comic books from eBay!

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I have a new hobby .. Buying comic books from eBay!

I have long referenced comics in this blog .. Blogging: Of Tom and Jerry and craving the friction of a human being and recently I discovered that some of the relatively rare comics that I like are on eBay!

I spent a lot of my childhood reading comics from the Silver age and Bronze age of comics.

I am not THAT old! But those comics were in India when I grew up.

My pride and joy is a 1955 collectors item Tom and Jerry digest edition I bought last week and I paid a lot more than the 25c sticker price on it! Ha ha!

But in any case, I like the comics from that age .. a more kinder, gentler age especially Gold Key comics. One of these days, futuretext may even get into publishing comics … but meanwhile if you are selling any of the below, I am interested or even if you want to have a conversation!

i already have every Tintin and Asterix ever published and also a lot of Snoopy(Charles Schulz) but also interested in these!

* The Beagle Boys (Walt Disney’s)

* Beep Beep the Road Runner

* Beetle Bailey

* Bugs Bunny

* Bullwinkle and Rocky

* Daffy Duck

* Donald Duck (Walt Disney’s)

* Fireball XL5

* Flash Gordon

* The Flintstones

* The Funky Phantom

* Korak, Son of Tarzan

* Huey, Dewey and Louie, Junior Woodchucks

* Little Lulu

* The Lone Ranger

* The Man from U.N.C.L.E.

* Mickey Mouse (Walt Disney’s)

* Moby Duck (Walt Disney’s)

* The Phantom

* Porky Pig

* Super Goof (Walt Disney’s)

* Tarzan

* Tom and Jerry

* Tweety and Sylvester

* Uncle Scrooge

* Walt Disney Comics Digest

* Walt Disney’s Comics and Stories

* Walt Disney’s Showcase

* Woody Woodpecker

* Yosemite Sam (and Bugs Bunny)

Carnival of the mobilists No 203 at AJ Wright’s blog

Carnival of the mobilists No 203 at AJ Wright’s blog Antoine does some great work with the Nokia web server and also one of the only people I know who explores the topic of faith and mobile. So, here is the link to the carnival of the mobilists no 203

Blog – IKEA’s new iPhone app‏

IKEA launches an iPhone app and makes the IKEA Catalogue 2010 available to customers via Apple iPhone.

It allows users to simply flip through the pages of the UK catalogue on an iPhone and discover products for every area of the home, from kitchens and bedrooms to living rooms. There are plans to quickly improve and develop the app – but only in conjunction with customers who choose to download it. Customers are invited to add their thoughts and opinions on how it can be improved, in order to produce an app that works the most intuitively with the IKEA customer experience. The app will provide a lightweight and an environmentally friendly alternative to the printed catalogue.

I like this app – its a good interface and also has a lot of detail.

The IKEA Catalogue 2010 UK edition is available as a free download

from the Apple iTunes Store on 3 December 2009.

Download link is HERE

See a YouTube video below

Thank You Viviane Reding

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Thank You Viviane Reding for standing up for the rights of the digital citizen in the EU.

We look forward to the same and more from Neelie Kroes.

M-days Conference

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In January, I will be speaking at the M-days conference in Munich which is the largest European mobile conference (after Barcelona). Previously, they were mainly German language focused, but from 2010 onwards there is a large group of English speaking talks as well and I am happy to speak at this event along with speakers from Deutsche Telekom, Qualcomm, HUGO BOSS, MySpace, BMW Group, Microsoft, Ogilvy Group, Samsung, Coca-Cola, BBC, Nokia and many others.

The event is on January 28th and 29th 2010 in the futuristic ambiance of the BMW-Welt Munich with 1400 participants expected. If you are attending this event, happy to meet up.

How newspapers plan to go mobile

The future of the newspaper industry is assured :) I like the bit about the ‘best of news’ coming from the Sun :)

A brief survey and my nomination to the World Economic Forum – Future of the Internet council

This year, I was nominated to the global agenda on the future of the Internet by the World Economic Forum

While it is nice to be considered amongst the foremost thinkers in this space as per the WEF, it is quickly apparent how little we all know about the potential future impact of the Internet, especially as more people in emerging markets are connected.

Here is an example:

I attended the first World Economic Forum meeting in Dubai last week and I met a lady from the World bank who was working with villagers in Kathmandu to create a system that provided villagers in Nepal with an accurate picture of water supply. On first impressions, this is a simple task. But not so in practise .. Weather information and patterns are known but that data is not easily available to those who need it most. Even if were, is not in a uniform format. So, first the data has to be liberated from various agencies (think work of bodies like the sunlight foundation ), next it has to be massaged and scrubbed (a classic ETL operation) and then the insights have to be deployed (through mobile technologies) to the people. Somewhere in the midst of this, sensors are involved to capture real time weather and water patterns on the ground to be fed back to the system.

As she summarised it: We have Google Earth – but I wish we had Google Water!

I agree ..

Long before the OpenGardens blog became well known, I had been an advocate of better information as a road to progress for developing countries(and especially for Africa) . Thus, in my view, the future of the Internet lies in this kind of cross domain application that enriches the lives of ordinary people. It also needs collaboration from many people across their respective areas of expertise globally.

Hence, this blog comprises of two sections: Firstly, a brief survey on the future of the Internet which I seek your feedback on; and then a personal view on the Future of the Internet from my various discussions at the World Economic Forum council in Dubai.

Although I was a part of the future of the Internet council, I was also working closely with the groups on Cloud computing, Mobility and Government. Hence, many thanks to Joanna Gordon (Cloud computing), Dr Paul Jacobs (chairperson of the Mobile group) and Bruno Lanvin (INSEAD)and Don Tapscott (Future of Government council) who invited me to their respective groups.

Areas of interest for me which I hope to contribute towards at WEF are:

a) m-health

b) smartgrids

c) secure cloud and Cloud computing in general

d) Privacy and data protection

e) mcommerce

f) Emerging markets

g) Impact of mobility

Any comments/feedback/synergies in this space welcome

If you are interested in a paper I wrote as an example of some of the ideas I am interested in, see Smart grids – a need for collaboration

Survey

Try to complete this survey spontaneously within 10 mins – you can always elaborate but try and say what’s the first thing that comes to your mind. Thanks for your insights for the survey. In a recession year, I hope these findings can help in refining the thought process.

1) If you are asked: What will be the future of the Internet. What keywords come to mind?

2) The Internet is a platform. It is generative i.e. its uses are unpredictable since intelligence is at the edge of the network. What threats do you perceive to role of the Internet as a platform?

3) The Internet is extending to be a ‘Network of networks’. In which circumstances do we see that the IP protocol may NOT be applicable as it stands? (One example is Critical Infrastructure protection)

4) Mobile will be one of the key drivers of the Internet. The Internet incorporates any device connected via the IP protocol. In that sense, all mobile devices are a part of the Internet. However, if the Internet is viewed as a set services (and that is often the user’s perspective anyway), then the mobile device could be the primary mode of access to the Internet for a majority of the people in the world. Their experience of the Internet will be very different(social, connectivity, creation, richness etc). Which examples of innovation do you see coming from emerging mobile markets?

5) Sensors could be an important part of the future of the Internet, which are the examples of sensors in the short to medium term?

Many thanks for this.

My personal views on the future of the Internet at the world economic forum

Background

In a nutshell, we have 20th century institutions and we are facing 21st century problems.

Going forward, with global problems and threats, we need new forms of collaboration which will comprise (at least) of: State to State; Cross domain multi stake holder collaboration (informal networks) and Sub national(between cities). Risk is the new ‘normal’ and as the asymmetry of information decreases and citizens globally become more aware, new models of collaboration are needed and in many cases, these will be driven by the Internet.

Here are my views and notes from attending the Future of the Internet council and also from discussions in Future of Mobile and Future of Government councils

Note that these are my personal views and notes.

The broad question we are addressing in the Future of the Internet council is: The Internet grew from the ethos of Open collaboration. As the Internet becomes mature and pervasive, there is a tendency from Government to ‘lock down/close/block’ the freedom and the ethos of the Internet on which it has thrived so far in response to a perceived systemic risk/threat

My personal views are as follows (and are based on the notes and ideas that resonated with me in these three sessions).

The characteristics of the Internet on Governance

a) The overall vision of the Internet going forward is to create a universal platform that works for the whole world

b) Traditional systems are based on scarcity and control. The Internet is based on abundance and access. It needs collaboration, co-ordination and co-operation

c) Social systems are resilient. Technological systems are more fragile. There is a tendency to regulate the technology by treating the technological system like a social system, but that will not work.

d) The Internet is a platform. And whatever it touches, it also converts into a platform. Thus, the tendency of the Internet is to make Government into a platform. If the Government became a platform, it would be based on services that are not anticipated in advance.

e) The Government no longer becomes a ‘broadcast medium’ since it starts to incorporate the views and feedback from a citizens (closed feedback loop)

f) The Internet has a faster rate of change than Government. This causes conflicts in regulations i.e. the Internet is ahead of the regulatory curve.

g) The Internet is based on the ‘coalition of the capable’. This ethos will spread across other domains.

h) Internet governance has been built without governments. It has transcended Governments.

i) The Internet is a fundamental right(like access to water)

Impact of the Internet on Governance

a) Areas where there is consensus are easier to regulate. However, the number of stakeholders are increasing and are becoming global. This means, Governments have to realize that decisions will be complex and multi-stake holder. Multi-stake holder collaboration will be the default rather than the exception

b) For a diverse set of opinions, it may be necessary to get views from people within a specific Government. The Web makes capturing such views possible

c) The Internet is a universal global platform that works because government is one voice among many and not the final arbiter. Governance of the Internet needs working with a complex socially technical system. There is a tendency to regulate based on what we know and a feeling that the G20 could do it themselves.

d) Would we create a more polarized society or a less polarized society?

e) The younger generation (which has grown up with Internet, social networking and Mobile technologies) brings with it to the workforce a different set of values. This will create a generational conflict.

f) Internet allows us to create bite sized innovation rather than big bang innovation

g) Emerging markets like Brazil and India will lead to innovation in different areas going forward

h) If the Internet mirrors the social networking, we are likely to see 10% contributors; 40% commentators. This will be a positive change

i) Sensors and Mobile devices are the key future drivers of the Internet. Hence, applications like Mobile Health and Smart Grids will be important

j) Transparency will be the currency of the Internet and will be important going forward

k) We have yet to see the privacy impact of issues like putting the individual’s whole genome online

l) Internet collaboration has many positive case studies ex Kiva micro banking which hit 100 million dollars four years after its founding and ofcourse Wikipedia

Mobile

a) Mobile will be one of the key drivers of the Internet

b) The Internet incorporates any device connected via the IP protocol. In that sense, all mobile devices are a part of the Internet

c) However, if the Internet is viewed as a set services (and that is often the user’s perspective), then the mobile device could be the primary mode of access to the Internet for a majority of the people in the world. Their experience of the Internet will be very different(social, connectivity, creation, richness etc)

d) IP is fundamentally disruptive. It is not possible to charge for ‘interconnect charges’ across countries since packets flow freely across geography.

Recommendations

My recommendations would be (for which WEF could act as a catalyst)

a) The rate of change of the Internet is greater than that of the legal framework. Hence, there needs to be a place/forum where legislators can collaborate and share information. It could be called a ‘Pre law’ forum or as I called it once ‘A back channel for the Internet’

b) The Internet needs a ‘rapid response button’ – we already have a similar idea in social networks like Bebo as of a few weeks ago(http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2009/nov/18/social-networking-sites-criticised). That idea could be extended

c) The Internet needs an early warning system

d) We need ‘patterns and anti patterns’ that work i.e. templates (for the lack of a better word) which can be used to share best practice globally

Any comments feedback welcome.

If you blog/tweet about the survey, please let me know

Please email me your responses to survey at ajit.jaokar at futuretext.com

Some pics below

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From left to right:

Ross Anderson University of Cambridge

Paul Twomey President and Chief Executive Officer (ICANN)

David L. Sifry Technorati Inc.

Mitchell Baker Mozilla Corporation

Jonathan Hsu 24/7 Real Media

Bruce Schneier Chief Security Technology Officer BT

Drew.Bartkiewicz The Hartford

Jun Murai Keio University

Ajit jaokar (me) :)

Alan Marcus – Senior Director, Head of IT and Telecom Industries – World Economic Forum

Dorothy Attwood AT&T Inc.

Wu Jianping CERNET

Jonathan Zittrain Professor of Law Harvard Law School who is the chairperson of the group is not in the pic and there are others who were not at Dubai

(thanks to Paul Twomey for the pics)

Paper – Smart Grids and the need for collaboration.

As I have posted before, I am ultimately working on Privacy and Smart Grids .. which I will post as we go along. But here is a paper about is Smart Grids and the need for collaboration – first published in the World Economic Forum networks.

Comments welcome

Note this is still in draft form.

Abstract

This brief paper was first published on World Economic Forum WELCOM network.

Drawing insights from the principles of Internet, it discusses the implications for the evolution of Smart Grids. Most people are ‘over exposed but under educated’ in relation to the Internet. Thus, everyone ‘knows’ the Internet since they use it, but few people realise the disruptive potential of the Internet. This paper explores the influence of the Internet to the Smart Grids ecosystem. It recommends that early engagement is the best strategy rather than waiting for the industry to be transformed totally. A collaborative model which engages with competitors, partners and customers is a practical approach going forward.

Note: I had some problems embedding this link. If you have problems accessing it, please let me know

PDF link – http://opengardensblog.futuretext.com/archives/Smart%20Grids%20%E2%80%93%20The%20need%20for%20collaboration.pdf