By 2012 50% of direct commercial revenue attributed to open-source comes from patronage of a single vendor and will cost same as non open source ..

Very interesting model from Gartner

Predicts 2009: The Evolving Open-Source Software Model

it means .. (as I see it)

By 2012, at least 50% of direct commercial revenue attributed to open-source products or services will come from projects under a single vendor’s patronage and the money spent with an open-source vendor of this type (one with this kind of “patronage” control) often is roughly equivalent to the amount spent with a proprietary vendor of similar technology.

I am glad that someone like Gartner finally talks about this openly (excuse the pun!)

I posted a while ago in a blog (based on a podcast from Andreas).. Open is the new closed? – Bringing transparency to Open source by separating Open source licensing models and Open source governance models ..

So, my view is Open source is great .. however we should not forget the ‘licensing models’ and the ‘governance models’ for Open source are two seperate things ..

If we now have majority of Open source projects under a single vendor’s patronage – as Gartner puts it .. (be they IBM or Red Hat or others ..) it is important to recognise that it IS a patronage .. ie it is NOT open as open once was supposed to be – (as in developers contributing for the good of the community in their own time) – and it seems that its the same cost wise as well in many cases ..