Factors impacting smartphone market shares in 2009(and beyond)

@Tomi ahonen has a thread in forumoxford about the evolution of the smartphone market. Some excellent insights and here is my top factors that I think will impact the evolution of the smartphone market in the near future

For starters, I am not clear what exactly is a ‘smartphone’.

Originally, with a Nokia hat on, it was S60 vs. S40 classification. Now it’s more complex. – but even with that caveat and considering the iPhone as an example of a smartphone, here are the key factors that will impact the uptake of smarphones in my view

1) LTE deployment – Samsung and LG have learnt from working with the US market. US CDMA operators are deploying LTE more rapidly. Samsung and LG will benefit from that experience and could translate it to other markets

2) Will the open source trend on mobile device lead to more device manufacturers? Giving customers more choice?

3) Supply chain – In 2007 Nokia was the leading supply chain manufacturer for devices . Not so in 2009(its apple)

Supply chain leadership is critical as this article explains

4) Will Android come up with really compelling devices? The ad model will have limited appeal and ultimately will need more in terms of the device

5) Will appstores and apps drive devices? This is critical. Will people buy apps first and then devices? We could extend the same argument to services in general

6) Will Nokia be a brand which shakeup the ecosystem(like the iPhone)

7) What will be the impact of smartphones in emerging markets like India?

8) Will phones continue to be subsidised? Will people pay more for phones when they have recently paid a full price (as happened with the iPhone)

9) The full impact of Microsoft on the smartphone market is still to be fully felt. Windows 7, Azure and Cloud computing in general has the potential to make a difference to the smartphone market by leveraging data in a cloud across the PC and the desktop

10) Will Operators continue to deploy a suite of phones for different customer segments or will they focus on a few phones?

11) Conversely will device manufacturers choose Operators (like the iPhone and the Palm PRE have done) instead of deploying across all Operators.