Portio research trend: 2008 will be the year that the worldwide mobile industry becomes a one Trillion US Dollar industry

Portio research trend: 2008 will be the year that the worldwide mobile industry becomes a one Trillion US Dollar industry

This is interesting, for a few reasons.

It says Trillion $ THIS year(2008) so not a forecast.

It also makes some predictions and data about near term trends(2008 to 2011 – data non voice and non SMS)

Qs is: Is it correct?

I am focussing on the statement

But that still leaves more than USD 161 billion from data services in 2008, rising to over USD 251 by 2011

I have a few qs

As I understand it, this is non SMS, non voice. Mature mobile markets like Japan and Korea will not contribute to the jump.

a) Does any one else have any validation of the 161B 2008 figure? What do other analysts say? This is no longer a ‘forecast’ since its already 2008. So, it must be a number that we can verify within a small margin

b) Whats the breakdown of the 2008 number in industry terms(again this must be known or may be imvestigated by other analysts)

c) What do we expect to cause the jump from 161B to 251B? This is a rapid jump of 55% in 3 years. If this is true, my three candidates are China, India and HSDPA.

My presonal view is

a) I don’t understand the 161B figure yet

b) I don’t expect a rapid growth to 251B but I expect that China, India and HSDPA will be the main factors for growth

c) I also expect a more gradual rate of growth for mobile data driven by Nokia, Apple and Google devices overall

thoughts/views??

kind rgds

Ajit