sky launches integrated mobile services ..

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Sky has launches an integrated mobile service. According to the digital tv group BSkyB has unveiled latest details of its mobile distribution strategy, launching a service that allows mobile phone users to keep up with latest multimedia news, sport and weather information around the clock.

This is another

OpenGardens strategy because it’s a downloadable symbian application. Sky is already delivering content through operators like vodafone and Orange. Once again it shows that the direct to consumer approach is gaining steam

the google ecosystem – what does it mean for you?

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Bear Stearns analyst Robert S. Peck upgraded Google’s stock to “Outperform” from “Peer Perform,” and sharply raised his price target to $550 from $360. Peck cited a long-term belief in Google’s fundamentals and the “burgeoning Google ecosystem.”

He says ..

“While most people associate the ecosystem with nature, we think it also applies to business sectors and believe Google is in the midst of nurturing its own ecosystem, much like Microsoft and IBM did in the past,” Peck said in a client note. Peck said Google’s effect on the markets so far are “merely pressure waves before the real tsunami.” He expects Google’s continued growth to grow more industries that sustain it and help build barriers for competitors.

“Google’s users and advertisers will become a market for products and services that are ‘about Google,”‘ Peck said. In addition, the company’s growing influence is among the reasons why rivals such as Yahoo Inc. and Microsoft Corp. are putting more time and resources into their search and Internet strategies, Peck said.

In the mobile context, I have been saying this for some time now .. with the whales and plankton concept for mobile developers

Yet, not many operators have taken the efforts to nurture developers.

Is it now too late as the web moves in?

Reqwireless rationale ..

Further to my previous entry about reqwireless, my good friend Dr John Whelan from Dublin offers some more insights in his blog entry about the reqwireless acquisition

John says ..

Has the potential acquisition of Opera floundered I wonder? The timing would indicate that this deal occurred before negotiations with Opera. However reqwireless could essentially be a much cheaper (and perhaps even technically) superior version of opera?

There is some merit in this thinking. This appears to be plan (b) perhaps? Agreed Opera does have a large user base – but any browser can be downloaded. Thus, the existing user base may be less significant if Google can offer a better product?

Having said that, like many people I am a great fan of Opera(and also google). So, a synergy there would have been great for the industry. Lets wait and see how things unfold!

Google’s acquisition of reqwireless – whats the rationale?

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Google’s acquisition of reqwireless – can you understand the rationale?

It seems like a J2ME browser – technically very good from the reviews but nothing special. Maybe it’s really for the engineers! No wonder the Canadians are happy!

Acccording to palowireless

Reqwireless WebViewer is a Web browser for J2ME MIDP devices.

WebViewer supports HTML along with GIF and JPEG images, providing users of mobile Java devices with access to the real Web. WebViewer is not a WAP browser. WebViewer is just 48K as a JAR file and is built upon ReqwirelessWeb, our class library for fetching and rendering HTML. WebViewer supports the following features:

* HTML, including forms and image maps

* GIF, JPEG, PNG, and BMP images

* HTTP, FTP, and gopher resources

* HTTP cookies

* HTTP Basic authentication

* HTTPS (if supported by the device)

* Bookmarks

seems pretty much standard to me. what am I missing?

supervillanos – the first mobile only soap opera ..

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In the previous blog entry, I mentioned the FT article on mobile video. There is an interesting side article by Leslie Crawford .. about a spanish soap opera called ‘Supervillanos’ which may well be the first soap to come to the small screen.

Drawing from this article and my own insights, this blog gives an outline of the lessons we can learn from the first soap opera

Here is what I could discern

a) Supervillanos is created exclusively for mobile. Its not an adaptation of an existing screen serial

b) In its first two weeks, the series had 350,000 downloads surpassing all expectations!

c) The series is about a family of aliens who take on a human form and it includes such characters like a sex hungry grand mother .. and I thought that the sopranos were dysfunctional!

d) Episodes are only 3 mins long. There are 40 episodes. They cost euro 60 each.

e) They also sell video games, logos, ringtones, music.

f) The article also says that at present, data accounts for 12-20 percent of most mobile operator’s revenue but is expected to be 20-30 percent of their revenue

from the site globomedia

Transmission date: 2005

The first series produced for cell phone transmission in Spain. This 120 minute feature film is divided into 40 episodes, each 3 minutes long for cell phone transmission.

An intergalactic family from planet Oluk Xramtá get lost during a family vacation and are forced to make an emergency landing on Earth. As they repair their ship, they must repress their superpowers in an effort to look like normal humans and survive. Ultimately, the inconveniences they are forced to endure on Earth make their evil nature come to light.

Mankind is in danger!

Numerous interactive possibilities: downloads, on-line chats, videogames, web pages, etc. This next generation format is ideal for an organization who is looking to expand their original content reach, especially with the use of the 3G cell phone.

Interesting mobile video stats from the financial times .

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Hello

Since my trip to South Korea, I have been following mobile video. Here are some interesting facts .. as per the financial times print edition(Dec 30) in an article by Andrew edgecliffe johnson and mark odell(Small screen dreams: mobile operators set their sights on the moving image)

I liked the starting comment in the article – ‘Mobile TV is like sex in the open air – jolly exciting idea – but not always practical’ says Dick Emery – chief executive of UKTV

Everyone is into mobile TV nowadays. One minute ‘mobisodes’ for ‘snacking content’ is the motivation behind deals between broadcasters like HBO and mobile operators like Vodafone

Having spent £40 billion 3G licenses – the operators are keen to recover their investment. But the market landscape has changed – with video broadcasting – now seen as the big driver for video.

But do people want to watch video/TV on their mobile devices?

In a survey of 1500 people aged 13-55 for olswang only 17% wanted to watch television content on the mobile phone but 44% said they would watch programs on their PC. 70% did not want to watch TV on their mobile phones at all!

Similar results were reported by strategy analytics where fewer than 20% of the people polled(in UK, Germany., Italy and France) expressed an interest in watching mobile video.

Inspite of this, the Global market for mobile video(including streaming and broadcast video) is estimated to be £1.56 bn pounds by next year and $12.2 billion by 2010

The revenue models also differ. UK operators like Orange charge a flat fee for video (£5). The operator ‘3’ charges a fee of £35 including all data services – not just video

Several continental operators like TIM in Italy and SFR in France charge a metered rates of euro 0.25 to euro 0.50 per minute

Rates of revenue share vary depending on the parties involved. In a SKY – Vodafone partnership, the broadcaster(SKY) would get 50% the operator would share the balance with the aggregator. Adult video services typically get a quarter of the revenue with the operator keeping half and the rest being shared with other parties like the aggregator

What I find most interesting is the possibility of ‘user generated’ video content. 3UK is launching a mobile community called SeeMeTV . People are charged 10p to see the clip of which the authors receive 1p if enough people(in this case 1000) download it

I believe that user generated content is the one to watch.

Image source: http://www.geekzone.co.nz/images/articles/video/FEscr(4).jpg

wikipedia is holding a fundraising drive .. closes Jan 6 ..

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A worthy cause that deserves our support IMHO

Please donate if you can HERE

Regards,

Ajit Jaokar

Mobile web 2.0: AJAX for mobile devices – why mobile AJAX will replace both J2ME and XHTML as the preferred platform for mobile applications development

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Recently, Opera announced the availability of AJAX on mobile devices through their browser. Considering the popularity of Opera in the browser market(especially in the mobile browser market), this announcement is indeed very significant and has been picked up by many A-list bloggers such as Russell Beattie and Om Malik

However, I believe there is more at stake here ..

Having been involved in creating mobile services for a few years now, I believe AJAX will replace both J2ME and XHTML as the platform of choice for developing mobile applications.

In this article, I will outline my reasoning.

Before I do so, a caveat – I believe that mobile web 2.0 is far more than ‘AJAX on mobile’. Essentially mobile web 2.0 involves applying all seven of the web 2.0 principles to mobility. I will be discussing mobile web 2.0 in subsequent blogs. For a more complete discussion see my article on mobile web 2.0.

Here, I am discussing AJAX only i.e. only one facet of web 2.0.

Overview

In this article, we will discuss

1) What is AJAX (an overview)

2) Current Mobile applications development models

3) Problems the industry faces (in other words shortcomings of the current mobile applications models) and finally..

4) Why AJAX will replace J2ME and XHTML as the preferred development platform

What is AJAX

AJAX is an optional addition to web 2.0. It is not a single technology. Rather, it’s a combination of a number of existing technologies acting together namely

• XHTML and CSS for standards based presentation

• Document Object Model for dynamic display and interaction

• XML and XSLT for data interchange and manipulation

• XMLHttpRequest for asynchronous data retrieval and

• Javascript to tie everything together

Until AJAX came along, it was not easy to replicate the rich and responsive interaction design of native applications. AJAX is different from other previous attempts in addressing this problem since it is based on existing, non-proprietary standards which are already familiar to developers.

In traditional web applications, most user action triggers an HTTP request. The server does some processing and returns the result back to the user. While the server is processing, the user waits! The ‘start-stop-start’ nature of web applications is good from a technical standpoint but not from a user interaction standpoint (since almost all user interaction is resulting in trips to the server and the user is waiting while the server is doing the work).

AJAX solves this problem by using the AJAX engine. At the start of the session, the AJAX application loads the AJAX engine. The AJAX engine is written in Javascript as a Javascript library and sits in a hidden frame. The user interacts with the AJAX engine instead of the webserver. If the user interaction does not require a trip to the server, the AJAX engine handles the interaction on it’s own. When the user interaction needs some data from the server, the AJAX engine makes a call asynchronously (via XML/XMLHttpRequest API ) without interrupting the user’s flow.

In this sense, AJAX is ‘asynchronous’ because the AJAX engine is communicating with the server asynchronously to the user interaction. Thus, the user gets a seamless experience(i.e. the user is not waiting)

There is a momentum behind AJAX at the moment. Developers are already familiar with the technologies underlying AJAX. All the technologies making up AJAX are mature and stable. AJAX is the foundation for many new applications on the web like Google suggest , Google Maps , some features of Flickr and Amazon’s A9.com

Mobile applications development models and their shortcomings

From the above discussion and from the articles referenced , we can see that – AJAX clearly solves two problems – namely a superior UI and a standardised form of data retrieval.

These two problems also apply to mobile devices and by extension, AJAX addresses them as well.

However, I believe that it does far more!

Specifically, it solves the following problems in the mobile context.

a) The problem of market fragmentation

b) Porting woes (specific to downloading applications like those built on J2ME)

c) Application distribution without ‘walls’

Besides, it has the developer community behind it – which is a significant plus!

Lets consider existing mobile applications development. There are two principal ways to categorise mobile applications – Browsing applications and Downloading applications. There are others(like Messaging applications, SIM applications and embedded applications) – but a vast majority of the applications we see today fall under downloading or browsing applications.

Browsing applications: Browsing applications are conceptually the same as browsing the web but take into account limitations which are unique to mobility (for example – small device sizes). Similar to the web, the service is accessed through a microbrowser which uses a URL to locate a service on a wireless web server. The client is capable of little or no processing.

Downloading applications (Smart client applications) : In contrast to browsing applications, downloading applications are applications that are first downloaded and installed on the client device. The application then runs locally on the device. Unlike the browsing application, a downloaded(or smart client) application does not need to be connected to the network when it runs. Downloading applications are also called ‘smart client’ applications because the client(i.e. the mobile device) is capable of some processing and / or some persistent storage(caching). Currently, most Java based games are downloaded applications i.e. they are downloaded to the client, require some processing to be performed on the client and need not be always connected to the network. Enterprise mobile applications such as sales force automation are often also examples of smart client applications.

J2ME is the most common mode of developing downloading applications and XHTML is most common way of developing browsing applications.

Let us elaborate on the problems I have outlined before and then discuss how AJAX will solve them – potentially making XHTML and J2ME less relevant.

Problem One – Market fragmentation

Mobile applications are primarily consumer applications. The mobile data industry is an emerging industry. As with many industries in this phase of evolution, it is fragmented.

To be commercially viable (especially considering the need for the network effect ), consumer applications need a large target audience.

This can come about either by a single proprietary standard such as BREW from Qualcomm (which obviously has it’s disadvantages) or through open standards not controlled by any one entity with few industry barriers.

To illustrate how market fragmentation affects commercial viability of a new service, I often recommend the following approach (Most of the figures can be easily obtained from the web).

The idea is to think in terms of ‘concentric circles’ in trying to find out the target audience for your application. A sample set of steps I use is as below

a) What is the population of the country where you are launching your application?

b) What is the percentage of handset penetration amongst this population?

c) Which operators are you targeting within this population? (Most countries have more than one mobile operator)

d) Which handsets are you targeting within this population (not all operators support all handsets)?

e) What is the technology of deployment for example Java, SMS, WAP etc?

f) Does the application have any special technology needs such as location-based services? How many people have handsets equipped with this technology?

g) What does a segmentation analysis of the subset reveal? (Simplest segmentation is male/female. Prepay/postpay etc)

h) What are the channels to market for the segments we are targeting?

i) What proportion of this subset do we expect to hit and convert to customers based on our marketing budget?(i.e. the conversion rate which can be typically 2% )

This will give you your target audience.

Thus, this target audience times number of potential downloads per month should give you an idea of your monthly revenue. This could then be tied against your cost base including your development costs, porting costs etc to arrive at a more tangible picture of success/failure of the new service.

The above methodology illustrates the problem of fragmentation and it implies that very few mobile services are profitable today. Thus, we have a proliferation of ‘broadcast content applications’ – ex ringtones, pictures but very few utility applications at a mass-market level.

Problem two – Porting woes

This problem is specific to downloaded applications (and more commonly J2ME). Write once run anywhere is a joke in the mobile context! – and through no fault of Sun ..

Consider the case of mobile games(a downloaded application) typically developed using J2ME.

First the good news ..

• Carriers such as Sprint and Vodafone report that mobile games and other data services now account for roughly 10 percent of their annual revenues;

• Industry consulting firm Ovum notes that there are now more than 450 million Java-enabled handsets globally, in addition to the 38 million and 15 million BREW- and Symbian-enabled handsets;

• Mobile-game publishers racked up $1.2 billion in global sales in 2004 and expect an even stronger year in 2005 as more and more consumers discover the tiny gaming consoles already in their pockets.

BUT then the pitfalls ..

Game porting generally requires developers to adapt to differences in screen resolution, processor speed, memory thresholds, and sound capabilities, all of which can vary wildly from device to device. For publishers, this can not only exponentially increase game development and asset creation time, but can also cause them to miss critical time-to-market windows in a hyper-competitive industry. As an example, imagine that you are a mid-sized game publisher with 30 games in your portfolio. To make your games available worldwide in five languages and on only 50 devices, you would need to create 7,500 different builds. At $2,500 per build, you would require a budget of nearly $19 million simply to handle porting.

This limits the business model severely and very few mobile games are profitable.

(original source for this section as per my blog Porting – the big barrier to entry with acknowledgements to Sameer Bhatia as per the blog)

Problem three – Application distribution without walls

The predicament of using J2ME as per the preceding example shows that it’s not enough to merely set up a community process as Sun has done (which works fine as far as the technology is concerned). The technology and the applications built upon it must remain homogeneous and interoperable to enable the network effect and gain critical mass. The fewer the ‘choke points’ for a platform – the better it is for the industry as a whole.

We will discuss this more in the next section(where we talk of how AJAX could address this problem).

Why will AJAX replace J2ME and XHTML as the preferred development platform? Can AJAX solve the preceding problems?

In my view .. YES

AJAX is accessed through the browser. There are two ways a customer can get the browser – either the browser can be pre-installed on the phone by the manufacturer or it can be installed as a separate application

Anyone can download a browser for a smartphone as this Opera link shows for series 60 phones

This means, all customers can potentially install their own browser and if enough people do – we have critical mass with few ‘choke points’ – such as specific restrictions created by mobile operators. In other words, a means to bypass the walled garden.

Further, AJAX offers a superior user experience and already has the developer community supporting it. The possibility of attaining critical mass (due to fewer choke points) means more chance of monetising the application – leading to a virtuous circle of better applications.

J2ME as it stands today, is seriously flawed(not the technology but the business model). XHTML will be an ‘also ran’ because AJAX will offer a superior user experience.

Hence, my belief that AJAX will be the preferred platform of choice for mobile applications at the expense of J2ME and XHTL.

Supporting notes

a) I have said ‘preferred’ and not ‘replace’ i.e. I don’t expect AJAX to replace any technology

b) AJAX won’t solve all problems. You still need to create a service which is useful for mobile customers

c) AJAX is not the only attempt to create a better interface. There have been others with limited success but they are not across the industry(or are proprietary). For example mobile SVG from bitflash , superscape’s swerve technology for 3D gaming (which is the implementation of JSR 184 – Mobile 3D Graphics API for J2ME™ ) and macromedia mobile

d) Not a lot of people are actually browsing the mobile internet. Although WAP usage shows phenomenal growth, these figures include the use of WAP as a transport mechanism – typically for downloading content. In other words, every time you download a ringtone, you implicitly create a WAP page impression. I suspect the real figures used by consumers to actually browse the mobile internet are very low

e) Very few mobile operators have tried to engage with the developer community as such. Practically the only example I can think of is source o2

f) The plight of small developers can be illustrated from my discussions with a Korean vendor when I spoke at imobicon in Seoul. The vendor had finally managed to get his game listed on a UK portal. However, that was because – a Korean aggregator managed to get a deal with a UK aggregator. Thus, he now had two aggregators and one operator taking a slice of revenue! Leaving him with very little. A sad state of affairs. Surely, there must be a way to create and distribute applications globally i.e. you write for the browser and anyone who uses that browser can download and run your application

g) Mobile operators often argue that they handle billing and location services etc. That’s fine – but let’s first worry about getting the numbers. Also, billing comes at a cost and there may be better billing mechanisms on the web.

Conclusions

To recap, Mobile applications are primarily consumer focussed. They need critical mass. Currently, the market is fragmented and the current commercial model is broken.

AJAX offers a potentially better solution in comparison to the incumbents (J2ME and XHTML) due to a combination of fewer potential choke points because of its distribution mechanism. The economic models do not favour J2ME and AJAX offers a superior user experience to XHTML. It has the support of the developer community.

Finally, note that I say AJAX will be ‘preferred’ model and not the ‘only’ model. I don’t expect AJAX to replace either J2ME or XHTML.

Comments welcome: Ajit.Jaokar at futuretext.com

Useful links: Opera AJAX announcement

Dion Hinchcliffe’s The Incredible Ongoing Story of Ajax

Image source: www.opera.com

Permanent Link: http://opengardensblog.futuretext.com/archives/2006/01/mobile_web_20_a.html

For part two see HERE